One aspect from your previous video work that causes a degree of apprehension for me could be a subtopic. I know from the videos that your hypothesis is financial repression comes over a period of decades with more frequent bursts of "emergencies" that are a result of the government's compounded ineffectiveness over the previous decades coupled with reluctance to cut spending or raise taxes moving forward. The death of SVB was one of these emergencies.
But I wonder what if you are wrong on the timing aspect? How confident are you in the timing? Why? And what if you are wrong? What if there is a collapse that is more sudden, as opposed to a periodic emergency dealt with? What are the implications then, and the safeguards one can take now? For example, I heard Dalio say in January that he thinks there is a greater than 50% probability of civil war in the USA in the next 10 years. That's an alarming statement! How does money creation, debt and financial repression play out then? Of course, that's an extreme case. But are there lessor situations that can create trouble with greater rapidity? What if with more suddenness major world powers like China, Russia and India opt out of dollars? Of course, that is already happening. But can it happen with acceleration?
And related... it seems like in times of financial repression, an obvious left wing strategy will be to attack the "rich" with an initial definition that is narrow and then an ever widening definition that will include me. I think about Spain already having a wealth tax of 1.2% on global wealth over $900,000. I think of taxing unrealized gains, as Biden recently proposed on the "rich." And I think a lot about what the countermoves might be, including offshoring wealth.
I'm not hoping for a reply to this post because answering these questions could be a book in itself. I just wanted to share things in my mind from your previous materials because others may have similar questions.
Nassim Taleb commented in one of his books that he had no deep interest in mathematics until he figured out he could use probability to make a lot of money for himself. At that point, Taleb dove deeply into the topic. I think similarly many readers may have only a middling interest in money creation, EXCEPT to the extent it impacts their ability to create wealth or keep it. And of course, as you've already established in your video materials, the exception here is very true. It's massively true. It seems to me that framing certain topics/headers from this perspective may be a helpful mechanism of gaining readers. And of course I believe strongly that the more people you educate on these topics, the better. Cheers!
Exciting! I'm looking forward to its publication.
Jim,
One aspect from your previous video work that causes a degree of apprehension for me could be a subtopic. I know from the videos that your hypothesis is financial repression comes over a period of decades with more frequent bursts of "emergencies" that are a result of the government's compounded ineffectiveness over the previous decades coupled with reluctance to cut spending or raise taxes moving forward. The death of SVB was one of these emergencies.
But I wonder what if you are wrong on the timing aspect? How confident are you in the timing? Why? And what if you are wrong? What if there is a collapse that is more sudden, as opposed to a periodic emergency dealt with? What are the implications then, and the safeguards one can take now? For example, I heard Dalio say in January that he thinks there is a greater than 50% probability of civil war in the USA in the next 10 years. That's an alarming statement! How does money creation, debt and financial repression play out then? Of course, that's an extreme case. But are there lessor situations that can create trouble with greater rapidity? What if with more suddenness major world powers like China, Russia and India opt out of dollars? Of course, that is already happening. But can it happen with acceleration?
And related... it seems like in times of financial repression, an obvious left wing strategy will be to attack the "rich" with an initial definition that is narrow and then an ever widening definition that will include me. I think about Spain already having a wealth tax of 1.2% on global wealth over $900,000. I think of taxing unrealized gains, as Biden recently proposed on the "rich." And I think a lot about what the countermoves might be, including offshoring wealth.
I'm not hoping for a reply to this post because answering these questions could be a book in itself. I just wanted to share things in my mind from your previous materials because others may have similar questions.
Nassim Taleb commented in one of his books that he had no deep interest in mathematics until he figured out he could use probability to make a lot of money for himself. At that point, Taleb dove deeply into the topic. I think similarly many readers may have only a middling interest in money creation, EXCEPT to the extent it impacts their ability to create wealth or keep it. And of course, as you've already established in your video materials, the exception here is very true. It's massively true. It seems to me that framing certain topics/headers from this perspective may be a helpful mechanism of gaining readers. And of course I believe strongly that the more people you educate on these topics, the better. Cheers!