One aspect from your previous video work that causes a degree of apprehension for me could be a subtopic. I know from the videos that your hypothesis is financial repression comes over a period of decades with more frequent bursts of "emergencies" that are a result of the government's compounded ineffectiveness over the previous decades coupled with reluctance to cut spending or raise taxes moving forward. The death of SVB was one of these emergencies.
But I wonder what if you are wrong on the timing aspect? How confident are you in the timing? Why? And what if you are wrong? What if there is a collapse that is more sudden, as opposed to a periodic emergency dealt with? What are the implications then, and the safeguards one can take now? For example, I heard Dalio say in January that he thinks there is a greater than 50% probability of civil war in the USA in the next 10 years. That's an alarming statement! How does money creation, debt and financial repression play out then? Of course, that's an extreme case. But are there lessor situations that can create trouble with greater rapidity? What if with more suddenness major world powers like China, Russia and India opt out of dollars? Of course, that is already happening. But can it happen with acceleration?
And related... it seems like in times of financial repression, an obvious left wing strategy will be to attack the "rich" with an initial definition that is narrow and then an ever widening definition that will include me. I think about Spain already having a wealth tax of 1.2% on global wealth over $900,000. I think of taxing unrealized gains, as Biden recently proposed on the "rich." And I think a lot about what the countermoves might be, including offshoring wealth.
I'm not hoping for a reply to this post because answering these questions could be a book in itself. I just wanted to share things in my mind from your previous materials because others may have similar questions.
Nassim Taleb commented in one of his books that he had no deep interest in mathematics until he figured out he could use probability to make a lot of money for himself. At that point, Taleb dove deeply into the topic. I think similarly many readers may have only a middling interest in money creation, EXCEPT to the extent it impacts their ability to create wealth or keep it. And of course, as you've already established in your video materials, the exception here is very true. It's massively true. It seems to me that framing certain topics/headers from this perspective may be a helpful mechanism of gaining readers. And of course I believe strongly that the more people you educate on these topics, the better. Cheers!
Hey Tom, your musings are very thoughtful, as usual, but I'll answer briefly.
Yes, the outcome of the looming financial crisis could be instantly catastrophic.
I believe a slow-motion catastrophe is much more likely. And I don't know how to buy foolproof insurance for a physical disaster.
But even if it is catastrophic, I believe the steps I advocate will be helpful.
(If you want to entertain the prospect of a true catastrophe, read the novel "One Second After." It's a good audiobook.
See what life would be like in a primitive state. Then stock up on ammo, fuel, and EMP-proof vehicles; shit, I am already tired!)
I've been round-the-horn on offshore wealth so many times. I can never conclude things would be better somewhere else.
No matter what we do, governments will try to impoverish us to pay their bills.
They will try it all, whether through higher taxes, defaults on promised benefits, mandatory ownership of government debt, or suppressed interest rates.
We won't be able to hide completely; we can only mitigate their damage.
Your point, that most people will only care about sound money once it impacts them personally, is valid.
I am trying to tell them that it's already impacting them, but they don't realize it because they don't understand it.
It's like telling people they are sick but can't yet feel it.
My purpose is twofold: I want people to learn how to survive financially and to know enough about money to save the country.
In my book, as in the course, all the narrative leads to the last chapter, which is a strategy for surviving (and hopefully prospering) in the coming repression.
The nature of the repression is that it will be upon us before most people realize it. This is already happening.
Knowledge is the only way you will know to take action before the shit hits the fan.
Perhaps, to get more attention, I should emphasize the practical daily events and work backward toward the monetary causes.
I plan to do more of that in the Stack after the book is out.
Keep the faith. Dan Kahneman said, “Nothing in life is as important as you think it is while you are thinking about it.” I think this means that merely by focusing on something, we tend to exaggerate its importance. He calls this the "focusing illusion."
This is gold: “Nothing in life is as important as you think it is while you are thinking about it.” So true!
One related point that jives with your point on off-shoring, i.e., "I can never conclude things would be better somewhere else." I heard over the weekend a Dalio interview. He said he thinks people make a mistake focusing on exchange rates rather than what the currency buys at home. In almost all countries today, including USA, Japan, Western Europe and China, your home currency buys much less due to excessive government debt and money printing, and this path cannot continue without severe consequences.
Notably, his prescription also resembles yours: own your home, own gold, own stocks, consider real estate investments in healthy countries based on his 8-metric country health index.
Exciting! I'm looking forward to its publication.
Thanks, Anders!
Jim,
One aspect from your previous video work that causes a degree of apprehension for me could be a subtopic. I know from the videos that your hypothesis is financial repression comes over a period of decades with more frequent bursts of "emergencies" that are a result of the government's compounded ineffectiveness over the previous decades coupled with reluctance to cut spending or raise taxes moving forward. The death of SVB was one of these emergencies.
But I wonder what if you are wrong on the timing aspect? How confident are you in the timing? Why? And what if you are wrong? What if there is a collapse that is more sudden, as opposed to a periodic emergency dealt with? What are the implications then, and the safeguards one can take now? For example, I heard Dalio say in January that he thinks there is a greater than 50% probability of civil war in the USA in the next 10 years. That's an alarming statement! How does money creation, debt and financial repression play out then? Of course, that's an extreme case. But are there lessor situations that can create trouble with greater rapidity? What if with more suddenness major world powers like China, Russia and India opt out of dollars? Of course, that is already happening. But can it happen with acceleration?
And related... it seems like in times of financial repression, an obvious left wing strategy will be to attack the "rich" with an initial definition that is narrow and then an ever widening definition that will include me. I think about Spain already having a wealth tax of 1.2% on global wealth over $900,000. I think of taxing unrealized gains, as Biden recently proposed on the "rich." And I think a lot about what the countermoves might be, including offshoring wealth.
I'm not hoping for a reply to this post because answering these questions could be a book in itself. I just wanted to share things in my mind from your previous materials because others may have similar questions.
Nassim Taleb commented in one of his books that he had no deep interest in mathematics until he figured out he could use probability to make a lot of money for himself. At that point, Taleb dove deeply into the topic. I think similarly many readers may have only a middling interest in money creation, EXCEPT to the extent it impacts their ability to create wealth or keep it. And of course, as you've already established in your video materials, the exception here is very true. It's massively true. It seems to me that framing certain topics/headers from this perspective may be a helpful mechanism of gaining readers. And of course I believe strongly that the more people you educate on these topics, the better. Cheers!
Hey Tom, your musings are very thoughtful, as usual, but I'll answer briefly.
Yes, the outcome of the looming financial crisis could be instantly catastrophic.
I believe a slow-motion catastrophe is much more likely. And I don't know how to buy foolproof insurance for a physical disaster.
But even if it is catastrophic, I believe the steps I advocate will be helpful.
(If you want to entertain the prospect of a true catastrophe, read the novel "One Second After." It's a good audiobook.
See what life would be like in a primitive state. Then stock up on ammo, fuel, and EMP-proof vehicles; shit, I am already tired!)
I've been round-the-horn on offshore wealth so many times. I can never conclude things would be better somewhere else.
No matter what we do, governments will try to impoverish us to pay their bills.
They will try it all, whether through higher taxes, defaults on promised benefits, mandatory ownership of government debt, or suppressed interest rates.
We won't be able to hide completely; we can only mitigate their damage.
Your point, that most people will only care about sound money once it impacts them personally, is valid.
I am trying to tell them that it's already impacting them, but they don't realize it because they don't understand it.
It's like telling people they are sick but can't yet feel it.
My purpose is twofold: I want people to learn how to survive financially and to know enough about money to save the country.
In my book, as in the course, all the narrative leads to the last chapter, which is a strategy for surviving (and hopefully prospering) in the coming repression.
The nature of the repression is that it will be upon us before most people realize it. This is already happening.
Knowledge is the only way you will know to take action before the shit hits the fan.
Perhaps, to get more attention, I should emphasize the practical daily events and work backward toward the monetary causes.
I plan to do more of that in the Stack after the book is out.
Keep the faith. Dan Kahneman said, “Nothing in life is as important as you think it is while you are thinking about it.” I think this means that merely by focusing on something, we tend to exaggerate its importance. He calls this the "focusing illusion."
This is gold: “Nothing in life is as important as you think it is while you are thinking about it.” So true!
One related point that jives with your point on off-shoring, i.e., "I can never conclude things would be better somewhere else." I heard over the weekend a Dalio interview. He said he thinks people make a mistake focusing on exchange rates rather than what the currency buys at home. In almost all countries today, including USA, Japan, Western Europe and China, your home currency buys much less due to excessive government debt and money printing, and this path cannot continue without severe consequences.
Notably, his prescription also resembles yours: own your home, own gold, own stocks, consider real estate investments in healthy countries based on his 8-metric country health index.